2024- TECHCET News – Critical Materials Council

January 23, 2024- Electronic Gases Market Aimed for Rebound Despite Challenges – Houthi rebel attacks and geopolitical issues raising inflation and energy prices
January 10, 2024- Future Market Trends for CMP Consumables Point Upwards – Increasing CMP Process Steps Driving High Growth for CMP Consumables
January 3, 2024- Chemical Suppliers Struggle to Keep Up with US Expansion Plans – Long-term US semiconductor growth is certain, but short-term chaos is likely

January 23, 2024

Electronic Gases Market Aimed for Rebound Despite Challenges

Houthi rebel attacks and geopolitical issues raising inflation and energy prices

San Diego, CA, January 23, 2024: TECHCET — the advisory firm providing materials market & supply chain information for the semiconductor industry — reports that healthy recovery is on the way for the Electronic Gases market, following the decline to below US$7 billion in 2023. For the coming year, the Specialty Gas segment is currently forecasted to grow 8% to hit US$5.6 billion, while the Bulk Gas segment will increase by 6% to reach US$1.94 billion. Through the 2022 to 2027 forecast period, the Electronic Gases market will grow at a 6.3% CAGR to top US$9.2 billion, as described in TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on Electronic Gases (https://techcet.com/product/gases/).

“One of the biggest challenges to the gases supply chain has been geopolitics, which has heightened complications within the supply chain due to inflation and high energy prices,” states Jonas Sundqvist, Ph.D., Senior Analyst at TECHCET. Recent geopolitical tensions, including Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea and Iran’s activities in the Persian Gulf, have significantly disrupted global shipping routes between Europe and Asia. As Sundqvist notes, these geopolitical challenges compound the existing difficulties in the supply chain, exacerbating inflation and energy price hikes. Due to these tensions, the redirection of shipping routes around the Horn of Africa is driving up shipping costs and extended transit times, impacting the global economy, particularly the supply of consumer goods, gases and chemicals, and energy. The gas market is also dependent on sourcing natural and rare gases from regions of political instability, such as Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, which has made it very difficult for suppliers and chip fabricators to come to agreement on long-term or short-term contracts due to potential risk.

Helium is expected to see steep demand over the next several years from chip manufacturing, one of the fastest-growing segments. TECHCET anticipates helium consumption to grow at an 8% CAGR from 2023 to 2030. Some issues with helium price escalation have come up over the past two years, and global supply is expected to lag demand until 2028, as shown in the graph above.

Additional incremental helium capacity expansions will be required to maintain sufficient supply. If Russian-sourced helium doesn’t come into the market in the next three years, another regional source will have to fill that need, or significant shortages will occur. Europe has diverted its supply from Russia to Algeria and Qatar, which are likely candidates to fill the void for the industry should Russia not be a politically acceptable source of supply. Algeria and Qatar could take the next step to invest in more helium capacity, but they need to justify the cost of increasing natural gas capacity. The risk of relying on Qatar for more helium is that it is located in the Persian Gulf, which could become affected by broader regional conflict.

To purchase or view the full table of contents for TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on Electronic Gases, go to:
https://techcet.com/product/gases/

ABOUT TECHCET: TECHCET CA LLC is an advisory services firm expert in market and supply-chain analysis of electronic materials for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries. TECHCET offers consulting, subscription service, and reports, including the Critical Materials Council (CMC) of semiconductor fabricators and Data Subscription Service (DSS). For additional information, please email us here, call +1-480-332-8336, or go to www.techcet.com.

January 10, 2024

Future Market Trends for CMP Consumables Point Upwards

Increasing CMP Process Steps Driving High Growth for CMP Consumables

San Diego, CA, January 10, 2024: TECHCET — the advisory firm providing materials market & supply chain information for the semiconductor industry — has announced projections that the CMP Consumables market will approach US$3.5 billion in 2024, rising from the US$3.3 billion forecasted for 2023. Looking ahead to 2027, TECHCET anticipates a further surge, with the consumable materials market expected to surpass US$4.2 billion. This growth is attributed to continued global fab expansions, and the evolving demands of new device technology which require additional CMP process steps.

As highlighted in TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on CMP Slurry & Pads (https://techcet.com/product/cmp-slurry-and-pads-only/), CMP continues to be one of the critical process steps to fabricate ultra-flat, low defect, and smooth surfaces, enabling advanced electronic device manufacturing to have an increased number of thin layers. Advanced technology nodes require more CMP steps – DRAM is up to 13 step, 3XXL 3DNAND requires 36 steps, and Gate-All-Around (GAA) logic requires 41 CMP steps total.

New metallization materials, such as cobalt, ruthenium, and molybdenum, are being evaluated to replace tungsten and some minimum dimension copper interconnects. These replacements will require new CMP consumables to come into play. This CMP consumable segment should experience a CAGR of over 50% as the new metallization schemes are integrated and ramped up.

Hybrid metallization, semi-damascene and hybrid-height with zero via structures are being developed to solve CMP integration challenges. Buried power rails (BPR) are helping to improve connectivity and will require 4-5 CMP steps for DRAM and 15 Cu CMP steps for GAA.

Device makers continue to look for ways to reduce consumables costs. In this current market climate, high inflation rates and the high degree of customization means that there is little chance that prices will decline for CMP consumables.

TECHCET is witnessing a high level of focus on in-line metrology, machine learning, and AI for the CMP processes. These smart manufacturing tools are being used to assist in tool-to-tool matching, contamination control, defect detection and process excursion prevention, all of which are increasing yield, improving productivity, and optimizing consumables consumption.

To purchase or view the full table of contents for TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on CMP Slurry & Pads, go to: https://techcet.com/product/cmp-slurry-and-pads-only/

January 3, 2024

Chemical Suppliers Struggle to Keep Up with US Expansion Plans

Long-term US semiconductor growth is certain, but short-term chaos is likely

San Diego, CA, January 3, 2024: TECHCET — the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information on semiconductor supply chains — is forecasting a jump in the US domestic share of the semiconductor material market to 13-15% by 2027, as support grows for incoming fab expansions. While this outlook is looking generally positive for the US semiconductor industry, uncertainties with timing expansions have made it difficult for suppliers to plan effectively and CHIPS Act funding does not seem to be helping. In many cases, suppliers are “expansion-ready,” and are just awaiting demand signals from chip manufacturers. As a result, much of the incremental US wet chemical capacity is focused on an “import first, build later” strategy, meaning capacity is being used to warehouse, possibly purify, repackage, and distribute imported chemicals, rather than manufacture them domestically. This is the case in regard to IPA, as shown in the graph below. Although the potential growth is high, the timing is uncertain.

While this import-focused approach helps meet initial fab needs, it keeps the US chip industry dependent on exports, which can bring instability to the supply chain. As wafer start capacity grows, this dependence on exports will grow in parallel, unless suppliers are able to ramp capacity accordingly, as shown in TECHCET’s new market report on the “Impact of Chip Expansions on the US Wet Chemicals Supply Chain.”

Asia-based suppliers such as AUECC, ENF, and MGC among others, have established and/or are expanding US operations to support the domestic chip manufacturing expansion. In addition, some US-based suppliers (PVS, Entegris, etc.) have initiated or announced plans to increase capacity for semiconductor wet chemicals. Timing uncertainties have remained an issue though, as many of the partnership activities, such as with Kanto and Chemtrade, have been stopping and starting with fab announcements.

Suppliers are currently concerned that the US CHIPS and Science Act is not supporting the full supply chain as originally hoped. Fabs and equipment manufacturers remain the priority of CHIPS Act funding. Material suppliers see the Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) as offering little support without tax incentives, and are unclear what funding will be left over for them. Furthermore, the NOFO discourages small projects, stating that projects under $20M are unlikely to be approved.

For more details and forecasting on the Impact of Chip Expansions on the US Wet Chemicals Supply Chain, go to: https://techcet.com/product/impact-of-chip-expansion-on-us-chemical-supply-chain-2/